¿Una pausa en el ajuste monetario? El Comité Monetario de la Reserva Federal se reúne esta semana y podría, por primera vez desde marzo de 2022, mantener su tasa de interés de referencia para alejar el riesgo de una recesión, a pesar de una inflación que sigue fuerte.

«Pienso que veremos una pausa la semana próxima», dijo a la AFP Lydia Boussour, economista de EY. La analista consideró que hay «suficiente apoyo» para eso entre los miembros del FOMC, el comité de política monetaria del banco central estadounidense.

Eso «permitiría observar más datos antes de tomar decisiones sobre la amplitud» de las alzas adicionales necesarias, explicó recientemente Philip Jefferson, uno de los gobernadores de la Fed y futuro vicepresidente de la entidad si el Senado confirma su nominación.

Desde marzo de 2022, la tasa directriz de la Fed subió 5 puntos porcentuales, para ubicarse en un rango de 5.00-5.25 %.

Estos aumentos llevan a los bancos a subir sus propias tasas, moderando así el consumo y la inversión, lo cual reduce la presión sobre los precios.

Luego de diez subidas consecutivas, los responsables de la Fed, que se reunirán martes y miércoles, quieren darse tiempo de observar los efectos del ajuste en la economía. Sobre todo, quieren alejar el espectro de una recesión.

Más de dos tercios de los actores de mercado prevé una pausa, según CME Group.

La decisión de la Fed será anunciada el miércoles a las 14:00, hora local de Washington (18:00 GMT), en un comunicado. El presidente del banco central, Jerome Powell, dará luego una rueda de prensa.

Los debates en el comité se anuncian duros: «Es poco probable que el voto a favor de una pausa sea unánime, con algunos ‘halcones’ (favorables a una política monetaria más restrictiva, ndlr) susceptibles de estar en desacuerdo», señala Gregory Daco, economista jefe de EY.

La economía de Estados Unidos resiste mejor de lo esperado las alzas de tasas, y se muestra demasiado sólida para que los precios dejen de subir de forma duradera.

La inflación volvió a moverse hacia arriba en abril, según el índice PCE, el favorito de la Fed, que dio cuenta de un alza de precios de 4.4 % en 12 meses. El martes, coincidiendo con el primer día de reunión de la Fed, se conocerá el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC), que podría inclinar la balanza hacia uno u otro lado.

En el mercado de trabajo, además, la escasez de mano de obra -que presiona al alza los salarios- perdura, aunque la situación mejora.

La creación de empleo en mayo estuvo por encima de lo esperado, pero también la tasa de desempleo -un factor muy considerado por la Fed para evaluar el impacto de sus alzas de tasas-, subió más de lo previsto, a 3.7 %.

Los pedidos de subsidios por desempleo a inicios de junio son los más altos desde octubre de 2021.

Una pausa no significaría que las alzas de tasas se detienen. Para Boussour, la Fed «transmitirá el mensaje de que no se trata del final del ciclo de ajuste».

Una nueva alza de tasas desde la reunión siguiente, a fines de julio, está «sobre la mesa», según la especialista.

Diane Swonk, economista jefe de KPMG, espera que la Fed «revise su trayectoria de alza de tasas de interés» y anticipe «tasas más elevadas por todavía más tiempo».

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