La suspensión de la cooperación china con Estados Unidos en materia de calentamiento global preocupa a los expertos, que esperan sin embargo que las fricciones entre las dos potencias en un frente tan importante para el futuro de la humanidad sean solo temporales.

En la conferencia climática COP26 de la ONU, a fines de 2021 en Glasgow, Washington y Pekín habían anunciado un acuerdo sorpresa para fortalecer su cooperación.

Pero después de la visita de la presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes de Estados Unidos, Nancy Pelosi, a Taiwán, China suspendió el viernes toda cooperación con los estadounidenses en varias áreas, incluida la lucha contra el cambio climático.

«Obviamente es preocupante», dijo Alden Meyer, analista del grupo de expertos E3G.

«Es imposible hacer frente a la emergencia climática si las dos principales economías y los dos mayores emisores no actúan, y siempre es mejor que lo hagan en colaboración», añadió.

La cooperación sino-estadounidense es fundamental en todos los «problemas apremiantes», estimó también el secretario general de la ONU, Antonio Guterres.

Pero el anuncio chino plantea numerosos interrogantes.

«¿Es esta una decisión táctica o una estrategia a largo plazo? ¿China quiere decir que la cooperación es imposible mientras haya tensiones?», se preguntó Alden Meyer.

«¿Cuáles son las condiciones para reabrir el diálogo? ¿Qué se puede hacer mientras tanto para limitar el daño y reconstruir la confianza?», escribió a su vez en Twitter Li Shuo, de Greenpeace.

¿Y qué pasará en la conferencia climática de Naciones Unidas de noviembre en Egipto, la COP27?

«Las respuestas serán importantes no solo (para ambos países) sino también para el planeta», insistió el activista.

Catástrofe

Desde la era preindustrial, la temperatura de la Tierra ha aumentado en promedio 1,2 °C, generando cada vez más intensas y recurrentes olas de calor, sequías, inundaciones y tormentas en todos los continentes.

Y según los expertos del Panel de Cambio Climático de la ONU (IPCC), podría aumentar en +2,8 °C para 2100, incluso si los estados cumplieran sus compromisos de reducción de emisiones gases de efecto invernadero.

Esos compromisos se han visto aún más debilitados por la crisis económica provocada por la pandemia de covid-19 y por la guerra en Ucrania, que condujo en particular al relanzamiento de las centrales eléctricas de carbón.

En este contexto, para François Gemenne, integrante del IPCC, la decisión china supone «un desastre total para el clima», «comparable a la retirada estadounidense del acuerdo de París», que pretende llevar el calentamiento global muy por debajo de los +2 °C, si es posible a +1,5 °C.

La retirada de Estados Unidos del acuerdo de París, decidida por Donald Trump y revertida por Joe Biden, estuvo acompañada de un retroceso en la política climática interna y externa de Estados Unidos, señalan los expertos.

El anuncio de China «ciertamente no es un retiro de la escena internacional en temas climáticos o un rechazo a la acción climática», matizó David Waskow, del Instituto de Recursos Mundiales, en declaraciones a la AFP.

«Romper con la diplomacia no significa que China renuncie a sus compromisos», coincidió Mohamed Adow, del instituto de investigación Power Shift Africa.

«En muchos sentidos, China está por delante de Estados Unidos en su lucha contra el calentamiento global», dijo Adow a la AFP.

Biden se comprometió a reducir las emisiones de Estados Unidos en entre 50-52% para 2030 desde sus niveles de 2005 y a lograr la neutralidad de carbono para 2050.

Pero sus ambiciones se han visto frustradas por la negativa, hasta ahora, del Congreso a aprobar sus planes en esta materia, aunque algunos avances se han registrado recientemente.

China -primer emisor de gases de efecto invernadero en valor absoluto pero muy por detrás de Estados Unidos en términos de emisiones per cápita- prometió alcanzar su pico de emisiones en 2030 y la neutralidad de carbono en 2060.

Exista o no cooperación con Estados Unidos, China se verá «presionada por otros países -los de la UE, los países vulnerables- para que refuerce sus compromisos», pronosticó Alden Meyer.

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