El aporte de sectores productivos, tales como, los servicios y las industrias, serán los grandes pilares del crecimiento económico del país para el 2023, el cual se estima reducirá su dinamismo de un 5.3% con que se espera cierre este año a 4.5%.
Las proyecciones de crecimiento para República Dominicana incrementaron en 0.3 puntos porcentuales desde julio, ubicándose en 5.3%, lo que se atribuye a la incidencia del sector servicios, que representa cerca del 60% del total de la actividad económica y presentó una variación interanual acumulada de 7.2%.
Asimismo, el valor agregado del sector industrial ayudó a mejorar las proyecciones nacionales, destacándose la manufactura de zonas francas (6.6%), la manufactura local (4.3%) y construcción (2.2%).
Estos datos están contenidos en el Informe de Perspectivas Económicas (2022-2023), publicado por la Dirección de Análisis Económico del Ministerio de Industrias, Comercio y Mipymes (MICM).
El análisis explica que, la inflación y el conflicto geopolítico entre Rusia y Ucrania, amenazan con provocar una desaceleración y posible recesión a nivel mundial que se reflejará en la disminución de la producción global, limitaciones en la cadena de suministros por presiones inflacionarias elevadas y el endurecimiento de las políticas monetarias que conllevará una disminución de la demanda de bienes.
Como otro factor importante que incidirá en las economías, el informe señala la reducción de la actividad económica China debido a los rebrotes de Covid-19, la crisis del sector inmobiliario y la apreciación expuesta por el dólar, factores que refrenarán aún más el comercio mundial.
Perspectiva inflacionaria
De acuerdo a este informe, elaborado por el Departamento de Estudios Económicos y Proyecciones del MICM, República Dominicana se encuentra dentro del limitado grupo de naciones en las que las perspectivas de inflación han sido revisadas a la baja y se espera que cierre el año cerca del 8.0%.
Los analistas del MICM destacan que para 2023, se estima que la economía nacional vuelva a presentar niveles cercanos al rango meta, o sea, por debajo del 5%.
“Las expectativas de inflación de los agentes económicos dominicanos han presentado una ligera disminución con respecto a meses anteriores; ubicándose en 7.5% para el cierre de 2022 y para 2023 se acercan al 5.7%. Esto puede deberse a que los agentes económicos esperan una rápida y eficaz transmisión de la política monetaria que permita la estabilización de los precios”, apunta el informe.
En recuperación
Respecto a los mercados laborales, el informe indica que siguen en recuperación, debido a que el crecimiento de los salarios ha estado en consonancia con las caídas en la tasa de desempleo y el aumento de las expectativas de inflación.
Explica que, en el país se proyecta una tasa de desempleo equivalente al 6.4%, por encima del 6.2% alcanzado en 2019. Sin embargo, la tasa esperada para el cierre de año se espera represente una disminución de 100 puntos básicos con relación al 2021.
Para el 2023, se espera que la tasa se reduzca a 6.2% en 2023 y con esto vuelva a ubicarse al nivel del 2019.
“Es importante enfatizar que, de acuerdo con los resultados de la Encuenta Nacional Consolidada de Fuerza de Trabajo (ENCFT) del Banco Central, el sector informal de la economía (excluyendo el servicio doméstico) representa el 51.7% de la población ocupada en el segundo trimestre de 2022.
Adicionalmente, durante el periodo referido, la tasa de desocupación abierta promedió 6.4%, se encuentra en un nivel similar a lo proyectado por el FMI para 2022”, resalta el informe.
El pronóstico para América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) es bastante asimétrico, detalla el informe, pues se ubica en promedio de 8.1% al cierre de 2022 y se proyecta en 7.9% para el 2023.
De las grandes economías de la región, como Costa Rica, Colombia y Brasil se prevé tendrán las más altas tasas de desempleo al cierre de este año. Agrega que la desigualdad de recuperación laboral en la región responde, en parte, al crecimiento heterogéneo de las economías.
Exportaciones
El volumen de las exportaciones se desacelerará en algunos países de América Latina y el Caribe. Las proyecciones del volumen de exportaciones de bienes para República Dominicana se encuentran por debajo del alcanzado en 2021, esperándose un 4.4% para 2022 y 5.9% en 2023.
Déficit de cuenta corriente
El déficit de cuenta corriente se ubicará sobre el -3.3% como porcentaje del PIB. Un valor por encima del 2021 (-2.8%), así como mayor al -2.7% pronosticado para 2023.
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